After a break from severe weather, storms look to return later this week. Tornado probabilities this time of year are still centered on the Southern Plains in Oklahoma, but this event will be north.
It’s almost certain we will see severe weather across the Plains early next week as a Colorado low moves northeast. That severe weather will probably be across the Plains and Midwest. We are quickly exiting prime severe season in the Southeast.
Wednesday’s Severe Weather Outlook
We will have two areas where severe weather is possible Wednesday. The main threat will be across the Northern Plains for damaging winds and large hail. But admittedly still not a concerning risk.
Thursday’s Potential Severe Storm Outbreak
The action will shift east on Thursday, with storms likely across the Midwest. An Enhanced Risk is up across much of Wisconsin, and we expect all severe modes to be on the table including wind, hail, and tornadoes.
The Marginal Risk extends all the way to Arkansas and Pennsylvania, with lower probabilities for severe weather there.
Storms will likely fire up near I-35 in Minnesota early Thursday afternoon, as shown on the Hi-Res NAM for 3:00 PM Thursday below.
Storms will then push east and become severe early Thursday evening as they cross the Mississippi River.
By 8:00 PM Thursday, or possibly slightly sooner, we will likely be watching for severe weather up and down the western shores of Lake Michigan. As usual, most intense supercells will likely be in the interior away from the lake.
And by late Thursday evening, models project storms to make it across Lake Michigan into MI and Northern IN. The main threat will likely be damaging winds by this point.
You also see a few storms west of Washington DC as well, which may be strong.
Friday’s Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
And finally, the risk will shift south into the Tennessee Valley on Friday. There were some indications it would shift into the East Great Lakes as well, but models have since backed off on that idea.
All modes of severe weather will be possible Friday from Memphis to Nashville to Louisville!
Share this forecast with friends and family in areas facing severe weather!
